Here are the details of Monsoon 2018 forecast by the IMD:
1. This year, the monsoon is likely to remain normal at 97% (with +/-5% error margin) of the Long Period Average (LPA) for the 4-month period from June to September.
2. IMD director general K J Ramesh said there will not be any deficient rainfall during Monsoon 2018.
3. The IMD predicted 42% possibility of normal rainfall and 12% possibility of above normal rainfall.
4. Monsoon is likely to hit India’s mainland in Kerala last week of May or first week of June.
5. The IMD will officially forecast the onset of monsoon middle of May.
6. Only by early June, the Met Department will be in a position to officially forecast distribution of rainfall and monthly rains for July, August and September.
7. This is the third consecutive year India will be having ‘normal’ monsoon.
8. In 2017, India received 95% of the LPA rainfall.
9. India had faced deficient rainfall, leading to drought, in 2014 and 2015.
10. Earlier in April, Skymet Weather Services, a private forecast agency, had predicted “normal” monsoon at 100% (with +/-5% error margin) of the LPA of 887 mm during June-September.
11. If the average rainfall is limited between 96-104% of the LPA, monsoon is considered to be ‘normal’; if between 104-110% of the LPA, then ‘above normal’; and anything beyond 110% of the LPA is ‘excess’.